An aptly named picture – the “duck graph” – is captivating the California energy policy world. It depicts electricity demand net of projected renewable generation (“net load”) on a representative day in the not too distant future. (For an update on the duck curve, see Meredith Fowlie’s recent blog: The Duck Has Landed, May 2, 2016)
One point of concern is the duck’s long neck, representing a 14,000 MW swing in net load in a roughly one hour period from 5 to 6PM. Currently, the largest swing system operators typically have to deal with is less than half that size. Adding insult to injury, the duck graph swing is projected to happen in shoulder months like March or October, when total system load will be low.
The duck graph encapsulates the collective uncertainty about how the electricity system will operate as the state adds more and more renewables. If the…
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